Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
PolitiqueRégulationOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard25 mars 26, 08:40 UTC21 janv. 29, 00:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsTrump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump attempt to use recess appointments for any of his cabinet nominees?
Manifold MarketsCopper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves once it's clear that either Trump is not running for the 3rd term (not going to try, or abandoned his attenmpt), or it's clear he was able to run without sufficient impediment to stop him.
- If Trump does not try to run for a 3rd term, resolves NO
- If Trump tries, but abandons the attempt before courts are involved, resolves NO
- If Trump successfully runs for the 3rd term, resolves NO
- A court decision that is overruled by a higher court does not count.
- A successful 3rd term run resolves NO, even if he loses - even if there are some court decisions that prevented him from being on a ballot in some states.
