Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueGéopolitiqueÉlection2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.5%
Prévisionnistes
466
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète31 mars 25, 14:57 UTC30 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiWill Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
Manifold MarketsWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
PolymarketIf Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.