Will Trump participate in an election for a third term?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 15:32 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète13 nov. 24, 03:07 UTC1 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Did "Elon Musk and Russia participate in election interference via Starlink"?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
resolves YES if
- trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time
- other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate
- he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running
- resolves NO if
- trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close