Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
One-OffGéopolitiquePolitique commercialeMoyen-Orient7moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 15:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.4%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 48 minutes
En retard31 août 26, 14:30 UTC31 mai 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
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Manifold MarketsIf traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $3.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?
ForecastExIf traffic at the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal before April 1, 2027, will US gasoline prices exceed $4.25 for the week ending June 29, 2027?
ForecastExRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
