Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.8%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
24 août 26, 17:40 UTC29 avr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 30th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the end of April 2027.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 719,6 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 97,8 k €
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 résultats de plus
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket] ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket] sera-t-il résolu ?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket] doit être résolu le 29 avril 2027.
- Comment Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30th 2027? [Polymarket] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and the end of April 2027.