Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 07:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleObserving a temporary ceasefire with US & Israel 47%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète23 mars 26, 21:58 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?
Manifold MarketsWill AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich investment will give the best return 1 year after Jan 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
I'll resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, and use my own judgment in the event of ambiguity.
- I may resolve to % if I feel it's appropriate.
- I won't bet.
- Specific rules:
- the named outcome
- By this I mean "strictly more friendly", in the sense that a leader who is roughly "similar" resolves no.