Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète4 mars 25, 20:37 UTC11 mars 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by which date?
PolymarketIf Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes a Roman Catholic (ends 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
FutuurNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
Militarily powerful way above its weight, supported by the US, surrounded by hostile countries,
- A larger block centered around Poland (e.g. with Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Baltics, etc.) also counts.
- Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Military Performance Clarification:
- Poland’s military must be capable of overcoming adversaries with populations several times larger than its own.
- This quantifies the notion of 'punching above its weight' as mentioned in the market description.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+2.8pt97%
- September 25-0.5pt86%
- September 3078%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 947,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 688,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 31+1.0pt34%
- September 30-2.0pt9%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 58,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 289,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+0.3pt3%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30-0.8pt87.9%
- USA+1.3pt11.1%
- Pakistan-0.5pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050? doit être résolu le 11 mars 2050.
- Comment Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Militarily powerful way above its weight, supported by the US, surrounded by hostile countries,