Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 93%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète28 oct. 23, 17:01 UTC1 janv. 01, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is the Jacobian conjecture true?
Manifold MarketsIs the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions?
Manifold MarketsIs the Hodge conjecture true?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
The first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture, also called the k-tuple conjecture, gives an asymptotic formula for the number of primes p ≤ x such that p, p + a₁, p + a₂, ..., p + aₖ are all prime, for any tuple (a₁, a₂, ..., aₖ).
- For the exact formula, see: https://mathworld.wolfram.com/k-TupleConjecture.html
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 24,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume total
- 302,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2101.
- Comment Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture, also called the k-tuple conjecture, gives an asymptotic formula for the number of primes p ≤ x such that p, p + a₁, p + a₂, ..., p + aₖ are all prime, for any tuple (a₁, a₂, ..., aₖ).