Prévision communautaire actuelle
Other 40.3%En tête parmi 20 options
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète24 nov. 23, 07:52 UTC2 janv. 40, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia on or before January 1st 2030 list WWIII as having started already on April 1, 2026
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
"Positive" in whatever sense it's interpreted by the individual.
- Could be capabilities, safety, adoption, whatever.
- I'll run the poll in January of 2040.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 40% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2040.
- Comment In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Positive" in whatever sense it's interpreted by the individual.