What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TechOne-Off1jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellesignalis 78.7%En tête parmi 34 options
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète10 août 26, 16:38 UTC10 sept. 26, 16:38 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Marchés ouverts
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
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- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
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- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
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- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
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+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) ?
- Manifold Markets cote signalis à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) sera-t-il résolu ?
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) doit être résolu le 10 septembre 2026.
- Comment What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.