Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète15 mars 26, 02:20 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028
Manifold MarketsHumanoid robot breaks human marathon record before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill I (@Bayesian) see a humanoid robot in person, in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiConservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- As of 2026, no fully humanoid robot has been deployed in direct combat operations.
- This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot (defined as a bipedal, human-shaped autonomous or semi-autonomous machine) directly kills a human combatant or civilian in Ukraine during 2026.
- Resolution requires credible documentation from established news sources confirming the death was caused by a humanoid robot's actions.
- The robot must be deployed in Ukraine and actively engaged in combat or combat-adjacent operations.
- Accidental deaths caused by mechanical failure or mishandling do not count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 423,4 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 95,4 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution Criteria