Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 67%
Prévisionnistes
73
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 24, 05:24 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill someone be killed by a humanoid robot by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2028.
- Has to be unaided by other tech.
- Could be an accident, ie the falling on the person.
- Must be a humanoid.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028 doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment A Humanoid Robot Kills a Human by 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2028.