Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle>3 months 81.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+4.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète22 juin 25, 18:14 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran, how many Americans will Iran kill?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
On June 21, 2025, the United States completed air strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
- While the US claims the sites were completely destroyed, Iran claims impact was minimal.
- This question asks: how many more months away from a nuclear weapon is the Islamic Republic?
- This question will resolve using estimates produced by international governing bodies, such as the IAEA.
- These estimates may not be available soon, and the question will extend until a firm estimate is produced by an international agency.