Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.5%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 54 minutes
En retard5 mars 24, 12:47 UTC1 juil. 28, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2031
Manifold MarketsRussian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2029
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRègles
Referring to land controlled by Russia today in 2024.
- So, things like talking action to reclaim land from some earlier set of borders would count.
- YES requires credible sources, battles or clear Chinese troops on the other side of the border.
- Or, China having bombed anything on the Russian side, or does drone strikes.
- Or other kinetic attacks.
- Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate.
