As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.1%
Prévisionnistes
44
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 49 minutes
En retard19 juil. 23, 09:54 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketWill the temporary Iran–Oman Hormuz shipping route begin operating by September 15?
Manifold MarketsWill WW3 begin before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRègles
Currently, it's estimated that <5% of Russia's military is female, down from a high of around 10%.
- However, men between 18 and 27 already face general conscription.
- With an evident shortfall in military manpower (see: reliance on mercenaries, expansion of recruitment to foreigners and convicts, etc.), will Russia's invasion of Ukraine cause enough instability that requires including women into a draft or the routine conscription?
- History and Current Status of Women in the Russian Military
- Resolves YES if Russia institutes any compulsory military service as a rule on any population of female citizens before the end of the war in Ukraine.
- Otherwise NO when the war ends.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 423,4 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 95,4 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 résultats de plus
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military? sera-t-il résolu ?
- As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment As the war continues, will Russia begin drafting women into its military? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently, it's estimated that <5% of Russia's military is female, down from a high of around 10%.