🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?
Trade PolicyGéopolitiqueOne-OffEurope2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 26, 23:43 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "YES" if a state of declared or undeclared armed conflict exists between the United States and the European Union, or between the United States and any individual member state of the European Union, at any point before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
- For the purposes of this market, "armed conflict" is defined as a sustained, organized, and intentional use of lethal military force by the armed forces of one party against the other.
- Minor diplomatic incidents, trade wars, economic sanctions, cyber warfare without physical casualties, or isolated border skirmishes not constituting a broader act of war do not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times).
- In the event of ambiguity, the market will look for official statements from the U.S. Department of State, the European Commission, or the governments of the involved nations confirming the existence of a state of war or active armed conflict.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria