Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 51%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète27 mai 25, 02:19 UTC1 janv. 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
IF there is a war between China and the United States, will China use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear strikes to the US?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a war between the United States and China before 2035?
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Manifold Markets🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2040, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
- Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
- Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.
- This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2040.