EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?
23.5 pts (24h)Russia / UkraineOne-OffEurope3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 77%+23.5pt
Qualité du marché
50 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,1 k €
Liquidité
7,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
17.0% / 29.0%
Écart
12.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
19 sept. 26, 01:13 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata.
- Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
- An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.