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Données au 25 août 2026, 12:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 87.5%
Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 minutes
25 août 26, 12:0231 déc. 26, 0:00
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Référence CoinRithm est de 13%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 1 point de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm 13% · 2 plateformes · 1 pt d’ecart entre venues
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+3.0pt87.1%
- Yes-3.0pt12.9%
- Volume total
- 53,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-6.2pt70%
- October 31-9.5pt50%
- September 30-13.0pt25%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22100%
- August 25100%
- August 31+1.4pt97%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-1.1pt19.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt5%
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027-5.0pt63%
- December-7.0pt46%
- September 30,-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt17%
- October 3111%
- September 30+1.0pt7%
+9 résultats de plus
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ?
- Limitless cote No à 88% au 28 août 2026.
- Quand Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Limitless règle ce marché comme suit : <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets, Polymarket.