Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffPolitiqueUS PoliticsGéopolitiqueMiddle EastLatin America3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.5%
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4
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 29 minutes
20 juil. 26, 18:27 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketDoes the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?
Manifold MarketsKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
LimitlessWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the US military invades the Kharg Island, located 15 miles off Iran's coast and through which approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports pass.
- Invasion is defined as the takeover of the Island by deployment of troops from any party of the coalition or it's proxies, OR the surrender of the island to the US, due aerial-naval blockade/bombardment.
- The market resolves NO if this does not occur by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, etc.) confirming sustained US military operations on the island or its surrender.
- Temporary military strikes or damage to facilities do not constitute invasion/control, unless if there's troops on the ground OR total surrender caused by said strikes.
