KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
September 25 25.3%+12.0ptEn tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
69 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,5 k €
Liquidité
14 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
2.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
18 sept. 26, 16:30 UTC29 sept. 26, 13:00 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRègles
If Sep 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:IMF PortWatch
- Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
- If Sep 22, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sep 23, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt7%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27 M €
- Volume 24h
- 656,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 59,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 525,7 k €
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-5.0pt75.3%
- Yes+5.0pt24.8%
- Volume total
- 10,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 410 k €
POLYMARKETSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- October 31+12.9pt88%
- September 30+26.5pt56%
- September 221%
+1 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.3pt13%
- Save the Children+0.1pt10%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
+28 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029+3.0pt73%
- Before Jul 1, 2028+3.0pt68%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+4.0pt56%
+10 résultats de plus
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) ?
- Kalshi cote September 25 à 25.3% au 23 septembre 2026.
- Quand Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) doit être résolu le 29 septembre 2026.
- Comment Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/21 - 9/27) est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Sep 21, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.