Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète24 juin 26, 16:08 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before September 1, 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- This uses Metaculus rules.
- September 30th is currently the median estimate per Metaculus.
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/42728/strait-of-hormuz-normalization-date/
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 978,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 379,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,1 k €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] sera-t-il résolu ?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will resolve if IMF PortWatch reports that the 7 day moving average for the Strait of Hormuz is at least 85 by August 31st.
- Où Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus] est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.