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Données au 1 sept. 2026, 21:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
September 30 10%+2.0ptEn tête parmi 19 options
Qualité du marché
66 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
112,5 k €
Liquidité
28,8 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
993
Variation 7j
+3.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard4 mai 26, 23:521 oct. 26, 3:59
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
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0%
0%
0%
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Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace.
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace.
- Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify.
- Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour September 30 est de 10%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 40 points de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm September 30 10% · 2 plateformes · 40 pt d’ecart entre venues
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- Tie19.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-4.0pt16.7%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Israel closes its airspace by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote September 30 à 10% au 1 septembre 2026.
- Quand Israel closes its airspace by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Israel closes its airspace by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où Israel closes its airspace by which date? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Limitless.