Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30?
Geopolítica
PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: No
Resuelto: 1 jul 2023, 6:03
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Probabilidad implícita actual
No 100%
Calidad del mercado
15 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconocidaDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 123 días
Desactualizado18 feb 23, 14:2730 jun 23, 0:00
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Reglas
A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic.
- Existing prediction markets on this subject lack functional price discovery mechanisms, and thus are misleading the people; therefore it was deemed necessary to support this market as a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- To satisfy a "Yes" resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation.
- For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 100% a fecha de 25 de abril de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30??
- Está previsto que Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30? se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2023.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Russia use a nuclear weapon by June 30??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: A prediction market on whether Russia will use nuclear weapons has been requested many times recently by esteemed academics and thought leaders from across the world, and it is strongly within the public's interest to have accurate price discovery and realtime forecasts on such a topic.