PolymarketCerradoComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Esperando resolución verificada
CoinRithm espera una liquidación confirmada por el proveedor antes de tratar este mercado como resuelto.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 9 sept 2026, 1:56 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidad implícita actual
September 15 100%+57.0pt
Calidad del mercado
65 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
15,9 mil €
Liquidez
50 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
99.1% / 100.0%
Spread
0.9 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado3 sept 26, 14:59 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Cronología de Probabilidad
September 15100%
September 30100%
100%
100%
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.