PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
1500+ 65%+1.0ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Calidad del mercado
63 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
5,6 mil €
Liquidez
5,6 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
2.0 pt
Spread moderadoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+17.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
17 ago 26, 23:28 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
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- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut??
- Polymarket cotiza 1500+ al 65% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut??
- Está previsto que Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.