Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2026-11-01 95.1%+0.8ptLíder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+6.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC11 nov 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.1, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2026-11-01 al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date?
- Está previsto que Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date se resuelva el 11 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.