PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
45%+ 96%-0.3ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
62 / 100
Calidad mediaVolumen 24h
1,7 mil €
Liquidez
3,1 mil €
Liquidez mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-22.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 minutos
17 ago 26, 23:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- Volumen total
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- Volumen 24h
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Polymarket cotiza 45%+ al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Está previsto que Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.