MyriadProbabilidad implícita actual
Sí 6%
Calidad del mercado
32 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
9,1 €
Liquidez
1,3 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
-
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
12 ene 26, 16:0430 sept 26, 23:59
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes6%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por volumen de 24h| Plataforma | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMás activa | 97% | +94pt | 61,5 mil € | 195 mil € | hace 15 minutos | Abrir → |
| MyriadEsta página | 94% | +91pt | 9,1 € | 1,3 mil € | hace 7 minutos |
También disponible en Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1.1%2m
+0.0%3%
-0.0%97%
73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidezCerca de la resolución
Volumen total205,5 mil €
Volumen 24h61,5 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Mercados Relacionados
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
987,6 mil €December 31: 37%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by...?
365,1 mil €August 31: 33%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
342,6 mil €December 31: 47%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
192,5 mil €Before September: 13%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
4,6 mil €Sí: 1.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIsraeli Parliament dissolved by…?
596 €June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.NewsIran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%Blockchain.News
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%Blockchain.NewsReglas
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period**: From the publication date through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after market close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to "**Yes**" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern within the Market Period. - Resolves to “**No**” if not.
- **Resolution Details:**
- - A potential “Yes” resolution requires credible sources to confirm that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical control—have been dismantled, rendered inoperative, or replaced by a fundamentally different system of governance, or that they have otherwise lost de facto control over most of Iran’s population.