Will the US enter a depression if the Republicans win the midterms?
EconomíaOne-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
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Datos del 15 oct 2026, 18:01 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.4%
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Actualizado hace 33 minutos
13 oct 26, 4:48 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Depression defined as
- a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
- an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
- unemployment rates >20%, OR
- 2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
- Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)