Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one?
GeopolíticaOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 57%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado8 abr 26, 2:01 UTC31 dic 30, 1:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.
- This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.
- "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.
- A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Está previsto que Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the next nuclear bomb end a worldwide conflict, or be the beginning of one??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)