Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Rusia / UcraniaOne-OffPolítica comercialIA5dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 99%
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado16 feb 26, 17:57 UTC31 oct 26, 17:57 UTC
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Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
- Timeline & Probabilities:
- 📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced • Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
- 📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability) • Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
- 📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%) • Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
