Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Oriente MedioOne-OffEuropaPolítica4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.9%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado30 mar 26, 18:33 UTC28 feb 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X
- This market has reduced criteria compared to Merz's statement:
- 33% (instead of 80%) over 3 years and a reduced time frame for faster market resolution.
- Two months are added since official numbers might come out later than 1.Jan 2027
- 900_000 / 3 / 3 years = 100_000 yr⁻¹
- Resolution criteria