Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGeopolíticaMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 61.3%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
5 sept 26, 4:38 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran strike US soil this year?
Manifold MarketsWill the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
KalshiWill the US announce in 2026 it is closing a military base in Germany or Spain?
PredictItUS announces military base in Israel in 2026?
PolymarketWill India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 61% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Está previsto que Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria