Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.6%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado7 abr 26, 15:33 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity.
- For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.
- If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors.
Mercados abiertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 23,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 312,6 mil €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Volumen total
- 6,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 153,3 mil €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria