Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualMilitary Installation or Static Deployment 100%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
46
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 55 minutos
Retrasado28 feb 26, 7:32 UTC1 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?
Manifold MarketsChina will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketReglas
This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a manned U.S. base, outpost, or recognized static troop deployment (e.g., Al Asad in Iraq, Tower 22 in Jordan, or THAAD batteries operating in allied nations).
- U.S. Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air): Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike, intentionally ram (causing casualties/sinking), or shoot down a manned U.S. warship, logistics vessel, or military aircraft.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if direct Iranian forces strike a recognized U.S. Embassy or Consulate.
- U.S. the named outcome: Resolves YES if a kinetic attack is successfully executed by recognized Iranian state agents within the 50 U.S. states or official U.S. territories.
- No Direct Attack Occurs in 2026: Resolves YES on Jan 1, 2027, if none of the above kinetic thresholds are crossed.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Military Installation or Static Deployment al 100% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026??
- Está previsto que Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This is an independent multiple-choice market, multiple options can resolve YES if multiple distinct targets are hit.