Will anti-AI movement cause all AI technology infrastructures and chatbots to abolish and defunct before 2040?
28.3 pts (24h)EuropaOne-OffIATecnología13a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo, AI technology will continue to operate and evolve, despite significant opposition and regulatory pressure from the anti-AI movement. 78.3%+28.3ptLíder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+28.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado1 nov 26, 8:17 UTC31 dic 39, 11:00 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market is an independent multiple-choice market covering outcomes through December 31, 2039.
- Each answer resolves independently based on the state of global artificial intelligence infrastructure, public chatbots, and legal/regulatory status prior to January 1, 2040:
- "Yes, all AI infrastructure and chatbots will be completely abolished and rendered defunct due to the anti-AI movement before 2040." resolves YES if, before 2040, a coordinated legal, regulatory, or activist campaign results in the total shutdown, legal abolition, or physical dismantling of all major AI datacenters, public/commercial LLM deployments, and foundation model infrastructure globally, rendering them non-operational.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- "No, AI technology will continue to operate and evolve, despite significant opposition and regulatory pressure from the anti-AI movement." resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2039, major commercial or open foundation models and enterprise AI infrastructure remain actively maintained, deployed, and functional in major economies.
