Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends?
EconomíaOne-OffUS Politics22dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 98.8%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 26, 21:35 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Was the ICE agent who shot Renee Nicole Good injured?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
KalshiGovernment shutdown by October 1?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.
- If no shooting occurs by the end of the current government shutdown over DHS funding, or if the shooting is objectively justified, this market resolves to NO.
- "Justified" Criteria (Resolves NO)
- A shooting is JUSTIFIED if any of the following physical facts are confirmed by video, forensics, official reports, or widely corroborated mainstream reports:
- Brandishing: The subject was brandished a firearm (or realistic replica), explosive, or bladed weapon.
- Detected Weapon + Threat: A weapon was known to be present (e.g., via scanner/search) AND the subject was aggressively non-compliant or making a move to retrieve it.
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volumen total
- 612,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,9 mil €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volumen total
- 2,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,3 mil €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends??
- Está previsto que Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an ICE Agent engage in an "Unjustified" shooting at a U.S. airport before the 2026 DHS Shutdown ends??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves to YES if an ICE officer discharges a firearm at a person within a U.S. commercial airport and the act fails the "Justified" criteria based on the best available evidence.