Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?
ChinaIAOne-OffTecnología1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.2%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado31 may 26, 5:28 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models
Manifold MarketsWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed).
- - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host.
- API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard.
- If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.
Mercados abiertos
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 11,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 38,7 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volumen total
- 356,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 13,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volumen total
- 2,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11 mil €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Está previsto que Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.