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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Geopolítica
  3. Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Manifold Markets
Sí 1.2%
Pronosticadores

27

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 días

Desactualizado
22 mar 26, 1:1231 dic 26, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes1%

Reglas

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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Activos en estos temas

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Reglas

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.