Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
Rusia / UcraniaOne-OffSalud y medicina26dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.8%
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Actualizado hace 12 minutos
5 oct 26, 1:53 UTC31 oct 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if a person outside Irkutsk Oblast is credibly reported as infected with the illness from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute cluster before the end of October PT.
- I will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
- The case must be epidemiologically linked to the cluster, for example through contact with a known case or travel from Irkutsk.
- I will give some time for the reports to be confirmed.
- If the consensus of credible reporting shifts and the case is confirmed to not be related, then that won't count for YES.
- The date used for resolution is the first credible report (not supposedly when they are infected).