Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualAlina Chan 80%Líder entre 18 opciones
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado15 mar 25, 21:40 UTC16 mar 30, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
Mercados abiertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 20,4 mil €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 919 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,2 mil €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,6 mil €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 866,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 mil €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volumen total
- 611,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,1 mil €
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Alina Chan al 80% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Está previsto que Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030? se resuelva el 16 de marzo de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.