Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualAlina Chan 80%Líder entre 18 opciones
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21
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado15 mar 25, 21:40 UTC16 mar 30, 6:59 UTC
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Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
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LimitlessReglas
Covid's origin has been debated for 5 years now, with the most popular theories being a natural spillover from wildlife or some kind of laboratory accident.
- Many people have strong opinions on this question, from scientists to pundits.
- This question seeks to answer how those opinions will change, after another 5 years have passed.
- At the resolution date, I will search for the most recent statement from each person listed.
- If they say that a lab origin is more likely, I will resolve that name to yes.
- If they say that zoonosis is more likely, I will resolve that name to no.
