Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 98.6%
Pronosticadores
45
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado5 ago 23, 20:45 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?
Manifold MarketsWho will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":
- https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
- [link preview]I found a few problems with main COVID market including a long resolution threshold (17 years) and an inactive market creator.
- I believe the long resolution time might be the primary culprit for the YES market skew.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve as YES if clear and definitive evidence is presented by investigators of a lab leak.
Mercados abiertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 20,4 mil €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 919 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,2 mil €
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11.5%53%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,6 mil €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k+0.1pt100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+3.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 866,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 mil €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volumen total
- 611,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,1 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Está previsto que Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market is supplimental to "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?":