Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Other 31.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
Other 31.7%Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado18 ene 24, 14:27 UTC1 ene 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsWill a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
Manifold MarketsEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketX banned in any European country by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
For the purposes of this market, I will consider countries which are members of the OSCE.
- This is meant to be a proxy of "European country", but note that it also includes several (post-Soviet) countries which are geographically in Asia.
- I will not count the US and Canada.
- ! Any changes which result directly from the current Russia-Ukraine war do not count !
- I will only count significant changes; I don't think there will be many opportunities for ambiguity, but, to give a formal criterion, the border change should affect at least 1.000 people.
- This is meant to rule out minor adjustments, e.g. to a border along a river which changes its course.
