Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.8%
Pronosticadores
427
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado31 mar 25, 23:44 UTC21 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald Trump either serve a third term or run for U.S. President in an election held after 2028?
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PolymarketWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill Trump participate in an election for a third term?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a formal attempt to serve a third term as President of the United States after having already served two terms.
- This includes but is the not limited to:
- Filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for a third term
- Pursuing legal challenges to the 22nd Amendment
- Attempting to assume the presidency through other means (such as becoming Vice President and then assuming the presidency)
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 615,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 730,5 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volumen total
- 29,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 643,3 mil €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 resultados más
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 14,5 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volumen total
- 19,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 483,5 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 19 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Está previsto que Trump tries to serve a third term? se resuelva el 21 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Trump tries to serve a third term??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria