If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
One-OffUS PoliticsPolíticaElección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 82.4%
Pronosticadores
401
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado24 ene 24, 4:35 UTC8 nov 28, 6:32 UTC
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KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiReglas
In Ben Shapiro and Destiny's debate, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6A2cukme8 Ben Shapiro claim that there is 0% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term US president, while Destiny claim that there's 100% chance that Trump would try to run for a third term.
- Who is right?
- I use a rather broad definition of 'attempt' here.
- Resolves to 'Yes' if there is any attempt by Trump to run for a third term as president.
- This includes public statements, fundraising efforts, or other indications suggesting he is considering a run for a third term.
- Resolves NA if Trump did not become president in 2024