KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual
Before Election Day 20%-5.0ptLíder entre 3 opciones
Calidad del mercado
48 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
1,1 €
Liquidez
45,4 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
6.0 pt
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
25 oct 25, 14:00 UTC7 nov 28, 15:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump becomes constitutionally eligible to run for a third term, and runs, will he win?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketReglas
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida mediante:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency.
- Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement.
- The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed.
- Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify.
- Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 615,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 730,5 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.1pt9.9%
- Volumen total
- 29,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 643,3 mil €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+37.0pt52.1%
- Nicolás Maduro-38.6pt46.9%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff16%
+48 resultados más
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.2pt10%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 14,5 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt93%
- Yes-1.2pt7%
- Volumen total
- 19,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 483,5 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi cotiza Before Election Day al 20% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Trump run for a third term??
- Está previsto que Will Trump run for a third term? se resuelva el 7 de noviembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Trump run for a third term??
- Kalshi liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.