Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 82%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 40 minutos
26 feb 26, 19:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump run for a third term?
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from being elected to a third presidential term under the 22nd Amendment.
- This market resolves YES if Trump officially announces a candidacy for the 2028 presidential election (whether as a presidential or vice-presidential candidate).
- It resolves NO if he does not announce such a candidacy by the end of 2027.
- Resolution will be determined by official campaign announcements, FEC filings, or statements from Trump or his authorized representatives confirming intent to run.
- Since beginning his second term in January 2025, Trump has floated the possibility of seeking a third term upon the 2028 United States presidential election on November 7, 2028.
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+49 resultados más
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
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POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volumen total
- 24,3 M €
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- 294,7 mil €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 82% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Está previsto que Will Donald Trump run for a third term se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Donald Trump run for a third term?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria