Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Líder entre 7 opciones
Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92.1%Pronosticadores
203
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado28 jun 24, 4:42 UTC20 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO.
- If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "the named outcome" resolves YES and "the named outcome" resolves NO.
- If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet.
- If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count
- Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution.
