Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado13 nov 24, 3:07 UTC1 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Did "Elon Musk and Russia participate in election interference via Starlink"?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
resolves YES if
- trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time
- other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate
- he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running
- resolves NO if
- trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close